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"Everyone drives, right?" Part 5: what... how many more vehicles?


Edinburgh is an ancient city with limited and contested space. But it isn't immune to societal trends....


Vehicles registered in Edinburgh


In the last 13 years, c25,000 more vehicles have been registered in Edinburgh.


There’s been no significant increase in roads though.


Changes from a bike hanger, extending a bus lane, adding a tram line or removing a parking space rightly require some level of consultation… but this organic growth has had ZERO consultation, despite its consequences.



Increases in vehicles registered 2009-2022 in #Edinburgh

  • 12% increase in total

  • 25,000 more vehicles

  • 19,800 more cars

  • 3,700 more light goods vehicles

  • only a few extra HGVs!

  • 8 fewer buses!


Almost 20,000 extra cars:


Private cars registered in #Edinburgh

  • cars up 14% total

  • cars up 1673%!

  • total diesel cars up 66%

  • total petrol cars down 11%

Did diesel cars peak in 2018/19? Is this the long term effect of UK fuel duty & tax policy?


A third more light goods vehicles:


Light goods vehicles in #Edinburgh

  • Up by 3,700 to 14,700 in total

  • 33% increase in 13 years


Is this driven by tax incentives, home delivery & internet shopping? This is only

Edinburgh data - suspect there are huge increases in numbers across central belt distribution centres impacting #Edinburgh too.


Note the picture on fleet registrations is complex!


Other vehicles:

  • Overall 6% increase - but tiny proportion of overall vehicles.

  • Bikes vary - SORN in winter?

  • 8 fewer buses

  • c60 more HGVs

  • (No idea what ‘other’ is!)


How are vehicles fuelled?


How are vehicles fuelled?

  • Electric now 6% (from c0%)

  • Diesel 35%

  • Petrol 59%


Are policy changes & climate concerns driving electric car increase and/or change in electric tech?


Still very slow to shift - are the sunk costs of a car a factor?


Will cost of living affect this?



But we've expanded Edinburgh's roads right?


Er, not really!


The next chart is tongue in cheek. But the key point remains - there’s been limited/no increase in the volume or capacity of Edinburgh’s road network - nothing like the 14% increase in cars…



Does greater ownership mean more driving?


Unclear: miles driven fluctuates with pre-COVID economic cycles, whereas car ownership hasn’t.


There’s been a 6.7% increase in miles driven 2009-2019… not much huh?


Well that’s still 123 million more miles a year!


Is #edinburgh full?



What to do?


Years of policy failure at all levels means the communities who can default to car ownership often do - with many negative effects for all communities.


With limited space, maybe strong #CirculationPlan#CongestionCharge and #WorkplaceParkingLevy will begin to turn the tide?


Is there a vicious circle?


  • The bus takes too long so I drive…

  • there’s too much traffic, so I don’t feel safe to walk the kids, so I drive…

  • cycling is unsafe with so much traffic, so I’ll drive…

  • parking is easy, so I’ll drive…


But there are capacity solutions:


Vehicle registration data source: DfT - data by quarter since 2009.


Also DfT for mileage charts.


End

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